The Morning after the Biggest Ballistic Missile Attack in History

October 2, 2024

by: Ilse Strauss

Wednesday, 2 October 2024 | It is the morning after the biggest ballistic missile attack in history. Not that you’d notice. Life in Jerusalem continues pretty much as usual. Tonight marks the beginning of Rosh Hashanah, or Yom Teruah, which is celebrated as the Jewish New Year, and Jerusalemites are out and about, preparing for the holiday. Such is life in Israel. Such are the people of Israel. Millennia of persecution, heartbreak, and attempted annihilation have taught the Jewish people the value of living every moment to the full—especially in the face of enemy attacks. And make no mistake: last night was a particularly fierce attack.

At approximately 7:31 p.m., Iran fired 181 ballistic missiles in several volleys at Israel, sending air raid sirens screaming throughout the country and sending nearly 10 million Israelis to their bomb shelters.

Oh, we knew it was coming. The signs were all there. Late yesterday afternoon, the Israeli army distributed new guidelines to the public, restricting gatherings and closing beaches. Then I received notification of the cancellation of a press event scheduled for last night. Finally, the US Embassy told citizens to “shelter in place until further notice.” But it was the announcement that all train traffic would be halted for the night that clinched it.

“They’re attacking tonight. Definitely,” I told Henry. “Won’t it be fun playing with Aunt Sarit and Uncle Shachar tonight?” I joked with Lily, preparing her for the fact that we might make a midnight dash for the communal bomb shelter we share with our neighbors.

But unlike the Iranian attack in April, the Islamic Republic opted against keeping us up all night. This time, the attack came right after dark. I’ve spent more than my fair share of time in bomb shelters before, but this was something else. The air raid siren wailed nonstop, punctuated by the dull boom of interception after interception overhead.

An hour later, Iran’s retribution was spent. The biggest ballistic missile attack in history had come to an end—with no Israeli casualties. To clarify, the attack wasn’t without casualties. Falling debris killed a Palestinian man from Gaza, while reports circulated of casualties and serious damage in Jordan.

According to the Israeli army, the majority of missiles were intercepted—with help from Israel’s partners, including the US. There were some hits in the center and south of Israel, causing structural damage.

The lack of payoff doesn’t mean Iran didn’t go all out, though. In fact, it seems like Tehran used its most advanced hardware for last night’s attack. So what went wrong? Perhaps the more apt question would be what went right.

In the aftermath of the Iranian attack in April, even secular Israelis ascribed their protection to the hand of God. This time is no different.

Israeli journalist and speaker Hillel Fuld explained: “Israel has three air defense systems, each one of them a technological wonder… The level and sophistication of the Iron Dome is simply unparalleled. But the Iron Dome only knows how to detonate short-range rockets or missiles within a 70 km. [43 mi.] range, give or take. Then Israel has the David’s Sling system. That knows how to deal with mid-range missiles up to approximately 300 km [186 mi.]. Then we have the Arrow system that literally detonates missiles that can fly outside of the Earth’s atmosphere. That has a range of about 2,400 km [1,491 mi.]! Last night, as Iran rained down ballistic missiles on Israel, all three defense systems were activated and implemented to perfection. The chances of all of these incredibly complex systems working in unison as flawlessly as they did last night are basically nonexistent. If one thing went wrong, if one of those ballistic missiles hit an apartment building, a shopping center, or an army base, we would now be burying hundreds of Israelis.”

Miracle? I guess that depends on who you are and what you want to believe.

It is important to put last night’s attack into context. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the attack personally in retaliation for the Israeli strikes that killed the leadership of Iran’s terror proxies Hezbollah and Hamas. This includes the head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, who was hiding out in a bunker under a civilian building at the time of his death in an Israeli strike.

Nasrallah wasn’t the only one. Over the past months, Israel has eliminated nearly the entire senior leadership structure of Hezbollah. What I want you to keep in mind is that Israel’s actions are not about inflicting death but rather about preserving life—in Israel and in Lebanon. Illogical? Let me explain.

Two weeks ago, war between Israel and Hezbollah, a designated terror organization often described as a branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, was a matter of when, not if. Hezbollah declared war on Israel on October 8, a day after its fellow Iranian terror proxy Hamas committed the worst attack on the Jewish people since the Holocaust. In the twelve months since, Hezbollah has launched more than 8,000 missiles, rockets, and drones on northern Israel, causing nearly 60,000 Israelis to be evacuated. We also know now that on October 7, some 3,000 Hezbollah terrorists sat at the ready on Israel’s northern border, waiting to breach the fence to commit the same massacre Hamas did.

This is not a situation any sovereign country can allow: daily missile barrages on its citizens, communities turned into ghost towns, some 60,000 people displaced. Oh yes, all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah was a case of when, not if. Yet the civilian casualties in this war—in both Israel and Lebanon—would far eclipse those in the Israel–Hamas war. Hezbollah’s abuse of its own people would guarantee that.

Like Hamas, the Lebanese terror organization is infamous for its use of human shields and sacrifices. It is perfectly normal for Hezbollah to rent rooms or attics in civilian homes and then use these spaces as arsenals. Israel has revealed evidence of cruise missiles that can hit targets hundreds of kilometers away, rockets with 1,000-kilogram [2,204 lb.] warheads, and drones set up and ready for action on hydraulic launchers in family homes. Please note this isn’t a one-off or a random incident. This is common practice, utilized throughout the Middle East but unthinkable in the West.

This forms part of Hezbollah’s long-standing strategy that turns civilians into human shields—a term describing a scenario where Israel refrains from striking the position due to the civilian presence—or human sacrifices—a term describing a scenario where Israel does strike the position and the civilians perish. Both scenarios mean a win for Hezbollah and a loss for Israel.

Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 precision missiles and rockets aimed at Israel. Can you imagine the civilian carnage caused by such an arsenal burrowed into a civilian area during full-scale war?

That’s where the targeted elimination of Hezbollah’s top leaders comes in. On September 17 and 18, thousands of hand-held pagers and walkie-talkies exploded in the hands and pockets of thousands of Hezbollah terrorists, incapacitating an unconfirmed number. Then, in just over a week, Israel eliminated the 16 top Hezbollah commanders, including its leader, Nasrallah. To put it bluntly, the only Hezbollah members still functioning are low-level commanders and foot soldiers, all of whom are petrified at who could be next. The terror organization has been decapitated, and a large-scale war with equally large-scale civilian carnage has been averted.

The question remains: why has this development put Iran in a flat spin? The simple answer is that Hezbollah is more than Israel’s enemy in the north and more than merely another Iranian terror proxy. Hezbollah was Iran’s loaded gun held at Israel’s temple. Without Hezbollah’s fully loaded arsenal aimed at Israel, Iran—and more importantly, Iran’s nuclear facilities, protected by somewhat weak air defense systems—is fully exposed. Iran’s bark is particularly vicious when it comes to risking the lives of their proxies Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. When it comes to putting themselves at risk, Iran is not as brave.

Does this mean the war is over? Not quite yet. While the Hezbollah leadership is gone, more will rise from the ranks. Besides, that fully loaded arsenal and the terror army’s soldiers remain. Israel has already announced limited ground operations in southern Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah once and for all.

Which brings us to last night’s attack. With its proxies reeling and on the back foot, why did Iran decide to attack, especially after its miserable failure in April? The simple answer is pride. Even when backed into a corner, the leaders in Tehran would spend millions and put the lives of their people at risk to accomplish nothing but the death of one Palestinian man to save face by saying, “We did it! We struck those evil Zionists.”

So where does that leave us? Will we see Israeli planes taking to the skies heading for Iran? That is the question, isn’t it?

The streets of Jerusalem are growing quieter as I write this. By sundown, the entire nation will shut down for Yom Teruah. Tonight, families and loved ones will gather to mark the start of the Hebrew year 5785. Despite the war, despite the attacks, despite the seven people murdered in a terror attack last night, Israelis will lift their heads and look ahead. Such is life in Israel. Such are the people of Israel. Such is the God of Israel.

Am Yisrael Chai. The people of Israel live. Because the God of Israel lives.

Posted on October 2, 2024

Source: (Bridges for Peace, October 1, 2024)

Photo Credit: Ilse Strauss/bridgesforpeace.com