In Range: The Missile Threat and Israel’s Response

February 1, 2010

by: Joshua Spurlock, Correspondent, BFP Israel Mosaic Radio

The weapons, according to a Ynetnews report citing Deputy Navy Chief Brig. Gen. Rani Ben-Yehuda, were enough to wage war on Israel for a month or more. To put that into perspective, the 2006 Second Lebanon War, which resulted in more than a million Israelis living in bomb shelters, lasted just over a month. The shipment was more than six times the size of the arms cache aboard the Karin A ship, which was intercepted en route to Yasser Arafat in 2002 and helped to expose the Palestinian leader as supporting violence against Israel.

Far-reaching Capability

Confiscated Francop weapons   Yet, the Francop weapons represent a drop in the bucket compared to Hizbullah’s total capability. While the Second Lebanon War depleted Hizbullah and has helped to drive them to a more defensive posture, the terror group hasn’t let the last three years just slip by. Thanks to the failure of the United Nations and Lebanon to prevent arms smuggling, Hizbullah is now in possession of thousands of missiles, according to Israel Defense Forces (IDF) head Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, who was quoted by Ynetnews. Even more alarming, Ashkenazi also said the rocket range for Hizbullah has reached as far south as Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Dimona—the home of Israel’s nuclear reactor.

Hizbullah’s efforts haven’t been without mistakes. Back in July, an arms deposit in southern Lebanon exploded. IDF spokeswoman Lt. Col. Avital Leibovich called it a “smoking gun,” proving Hizbullah violations of UN Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War. “This is not the only place in southern Lebanon in which these kind of rockets are kept,” said Leibovich to Bridges for Peace. “There are hundreds of similar places, but this is the first time that we can prove it to the world.” The UN condemned the clear violation of Resolution 1701.

Then in October, there was another explosion, and this time, Ynetnews reported that Israel had video they claimed showed Hizbullah loading weapons near the structure where the incident occurred. Though UN enforcement of Resolution 1701 seemed to pick up after the first incident, efforts by the UN appear to be too late. Hizbullah’s capacity to attack Israel appears to cover the top two-thirds of the Jewish state, at the least.

The rest of Israel, meanwhile, is soon to be squarely in the range of Hamas, if it isn’t already. According to The Jerusalem Post, in November of 2009, Israel’s military intelligence chief told a Knesset (Parliament) committee that the Gaza-based terror group test-fired a rocket into the Mediterranean Sea with a range that could be capable of hitting the Tel Aviv area. Considering Hamas already demonstrated the ability to repeatedly hit Beersheva, most, if not all, of Israel’s major population centers are now in terrorist rocket range.

Uzi Rubin—the original national program manager of the Israeli Arrow missile defense program and who now is the owner and founder of Rubincon Defense Consulting—told Bridges for Peace that getting the new rocket smuggled into Gaza was probably not easy, as it is a few meters (10 feet) long. Rubin said Hamas likely had to segment the weapon into pieces, assuming they brought it in through the smuggling tunnels underneath the Gaza–Egyptian border.

Furthermore, Rubin pointed out the fact that the weapon is larger and requires a “more serious launching device” than Hamas’s more traditional rockets. That makes it a bigger target for Israel as well. “The more serious launching device is something that can perhaps be preempted,” said Rubin. “…It’s something that has to be carefully manufactured, and if you destroy it, then you can’t launch a missile. So, on one hand, it gives them the capability; on the other hand, it gives them vulnerability too.”

Nonetheless, the added rocket threats give Hamas, like Hizbullah, both deterrence and escalation capability. Should either group initiate a small conflict, such as the kidnapping of a soldier or the launching of a rocket at Israel, the Israelis could be discouraged from responding too strongly for fear that the conflict could catch literally millions of Israelis in the crosshairs of terrorist missiles. Likewise, should the terror groups feel the need to escalate the conflict, they can use the larger and farther-ranged rockets to “up the ante,” drawing either an even stronger Israeli response or helping to force a ceasefire.

Playing Defense

Yet, Israel also hasn’t let the time since the Second Lebanon War pass by. While the terror groups have been stockpiling rockets, the Jewish state has been developing new defensive devices capable of shooting the missiles down. One of the most-discussed, in recent times, is the Iron Dome system. Rubin said the system is designed to tackle shorter-range rockets like the newest Hamas one, and that preliminary tests for it were “excellent.” The system will not be able to stop everything, but it should be able to limit Hamas’s and Hizbullah’s ability to hit major population centers. Though the Iron Dome was only started in 2007, it is planned for deployment in 2010, a timeline Rubin called “quite a record, if they manage to do that.”

Yet another tool being developed by Israel is the David’s Sling. Rubin said this will be able to take down bigger rockets, as well as some of the same ones targeted by the Iron Dome, and cruise missiles. While not a favorite of terror groups yet, the lower-flying cruise missile is expected to be a terror weapon in the future, according to Rubin.

Then there is the Arrow anti-missile system, for which Rubin himself played a role in developing. The system isn’t perfected yet, as Israel is still working on furthering the Arrow II, and the Arrow III is also being developed, which Rubin believes should be operational in three to four years. The system is built to tackle longer-range missiles, such as the Scud missiles used by Saddam Hussein in the First Gulf War and the Iranian Shahab, which could be configured to carry nuclear warheads.

Rubin said the Arrow III improves upon the earlier Arrow versions by hitting the missile higher up and farther out, further increasing the chances of a successful intercept. He said the defense provided by the Iron Dome, the David’s Sling, and the Arrow changes the game vis-a-vis the terrorists.

“We will be able to mitigate damages and losses. Without that, they hold the key of when to escalate. When they decide to escalate, we have to react. This hasn’t happened yet, and I hope it never happens, [but] a hit on a kindergarten, which kills, God forbid, so many children, is enough to blow the whole Middle East open,” said Rubin. “When you have defense, and you manage to shoot down many or most of them, you reduce the risk of such a thing happening, and then you can escalate when you want. You don’t have to be the reactive side, so it gives you a political edge over them. They lose their ability to drag us into a war that we don’t want; so it’s going to, I think, strategically change the situation.”

However, Rubin pointed out that missile defense systems are only defensive weapons. Should Israel be attacked, it will still take offensive weapons like tanks, fighter jets, and troops to put a halt to the threat.

Teaming Up

Israel won’t be alone should such a conflict emerge. While the Jewish state and the United States have been close allies for a while, their military cooperation hit new heights last November. The Jerusalem Post said the two democratic nations held their largest ever joint missile defense exercise that month, and a report from Isranet said that 1,400 American troops, as well as US defense systems, worked with Israeli participants in the event, known as “Juniper Cobra.”

According to Isranet, Ashkenazi said, “The combined capability of Israel and the United States is constantly being developed, and together we will be able to improve the ability of the State of Israel to respond.” And Juniper Cobra isn’t the only way the two allies have worked together. The Arrow is a joint development project, and as a parting gift from former President George W. Bush, the United States placed an X-band radar station in Israel. The system is there to give the Israelis even more advance notice of incoming rockets.

Prepping the Civilians

Israel hasn’t been lazy on the home front either. An emergency drill run last summer included sounding air raid-style sirens across the entire country and encouraging civilians to find their protective spaces. The Bridges for Peace team in Israel tested out our plans for rocket attacks by assigning persons needed to bring extra water and making our way to our respective safe rooms.

The Home Front Command also has a small, printable map on their Web site showing the amount of time each Israeli area has in the event of a rocket attack. Jerusalem is in the area with the most time to reach safety, a total of three minutes. Other towns and communities have much less, such as Sderot near Gaza, which has just 15 seconds. The northern city of Kiryat Shemona, a prime target in the Second Lebanon War, has even less time. The instructions on the time to find safety simply say “immediately.”

Yet, in the event of a new missile war, that sense of urgency will be felt across the country as terror groups, not to mention Iran and Syria, have rockets with the range to hit malls in Tel Aviv, the Knesset in Jerusalem, and schools in the Israeli south. At that point, Israel’s missile defense plan, civilian preparation and alliance with the United States will truly be put to the test.

Ultimately, however, Israel’s defense doesn’t lie in the hands of her generals. It finds a much more heavenly point of reference. Isaiah 54:16–17 says, “‘Behold, I have created the blacksmith who blows the coals in the fire, who brings forth an instrument for his work; and I have created the spoiler to destroy. No weapon formed against you shall prosper, and every tongue which rises against you in judgment you shall condemn. This is the heritage of the servants of the LORD, and their righteousness is from Me,’ says the LORD.”

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