Israel–Arab States’ Relationship Status: It’s Complicated

January 16, 2017

by: Joshua Spurlock, The Mideast Update

For years, Arab nations have kept Israel at an arm’s length and avoided public moves that would imply there was any relationship between them at all. But during the last year, a former Saudi Arabian general actually visited Israel, the Egyptian foreign minister paid an official visit to Jerusalem—and those were just two of the most public acts. Things have changed enough that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that there are “buds of a start” by certain Arab states to calm things down and lay public opinion groundwork for reconciliation with Israel. Still, the Arab nations are keeping much of their cooperation unofficial with no major diplomatic breakthroughs. So if this were on Facebook, Israel’s relationship status with Arab countries would be set to “It’s Complicated.”

For now, two Israeli experts see the positives as due to at least the appearance of overlapping interests between Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Arab neighbors of Iran. “I think it is the case to a degree” that Israeli–Arab relations are improving,” observed Dr. Jonathan Spyer, “but… I think we have to be careful not to exaggerate it.” Dr. Spyer, director of the Rubin Center at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, points to multiple reasons for an improvement in relations that, despite his caution, he also doesn’t want to downplay.

First: Common Enemies

Iran is a major threat to Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations in the Gulf region. Dr. Mark Heller, Principal Research Associate at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), noted that intelligence exchange is the one way Israel is believed to be coordinating with certain Arab governments such as the Saudis. “The number one strategic enemy of Saudi Arabia is Iran, and the number one strategic enemy of Israel is Iran. I think it’s really quite simple,” said Dr. Heller of the apparent uptick in publicized Israeli–Saudi cooperation.

Dr. Heller noted that Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon converges with Saudi interests to oppose Iran. Last summer, The Jerusalem Post reported that Iranian parliamentarian Ali Larijani, in an interview with Lebanese TV channel al-Mayadeen, claimed to have information indicating the Saudis had even given intelligence to Israel during the Second Lebanon War against Hezbollah.

Furthermore, Iran isn’t the only shared enemy. In Egypt, Dr. Heller noted that the Muslim Brotherhood and their related group Hamas are enemies of the Egyptian government. This shared enemy is in addition to various jihadist groups in the Sinai which also threaten Israel. Dr. Heller noted that Egypt let Israel strike Islamist forces in Egypt’s Sinai while Israel has allowed more Egyptian troops than normal into the Sinai region that borders Israel. Based on reports, Dr. Spyer said Israel–Egypt cooperation is doing very well indeed while Jordan—another neighbor that shares a border with Israel and is faced with Islamic extremist threats—is “in many ways dependent” on Israel for security.

The United States has shifted its approach to the Middle East so the Saudis, Egyptians and Israelis have all needed each other more. Dr. Heller said it’s normal when one feels the “main base of support” weaken to “diversify” that international support.

Second: Palestinians “Frozen”

Dr. Heller and Dr. Spyer agreed that some of the Arab governments’ stance on the Israel–Palestinian conflict—which is officially the reason why Israel–Arab relations are still broken—has been impacted by their concerns about common enemies. According to Dr. Heller, these concerns have “overshadowed, to some extent” the Palestinian situation. And while Dr. Spyer did not think that full diplomatic relations would be launched between Israel and the Arab states without a resolution for the Palestinian conflict, he nonetheless believes that Arab states aren’t as concerned about the lack of resolution. And it doesn’t appear the Palestinians are all that serious either, according to Dr. Spyer.

He argued that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas—who turns 82 in late March—knows he’s near the end and doesn’t want to be the one who handed over “Palestine” to Jews. Hence, Dr. Spyer said the Palestinian situation is frozen and said it even appears the Saudis have cut back on financial support to the Palestinians in order to “cajole” the Palestinian Authority [PA] into a more cooperative attitude, but without success.

Yet with all the other conflicts in the region, Dr. Spyer argued that “to a certain degree, Arab states don’t really have the luxury to focus on the Palestinian issue.”

Third: Long-term Change?

Dr. Spyer warned that just as Israeli–Turkish relations came undone with new leadership in Turkey, the Arab–Israel relationship isn’t set in stone. “These are all nice things, this cooperation, but it’s kind of just based in immediate needs, and immediate needs can change,” he said. Dr. Heller felt similarly, noting that relations with Arab states 20 years ago were actually more developed then than now, so if the shared interests change, “I don’t assume that an emotional base will save them.”

Still, Dr. Heller noted that many international relations depend on converging interests and not emotional ties, so it’s not as though that’s unusual. He further noted that while he thinks Israel–Arab relations are limited by disagreement over the Palestinians and Arab emotional links to them, due to the Iranian assertiveness in the region, “I don’t think [Israel–Arab convergence of interests] is a flash in the pan.”

Dr. Spyer, meanwhile, emphasized that his concerns about the overall status of Israel–Arab relations were “just expressing caution,” and said the situation is not unlike a love song asking if Israel will still be loved tomorrow. It’s complicated for now, indeed. But complicated peace beats uncomplicated conflict anytime.