Red Dragon Rising

September 9, 2024

by: Nathan Williams, Director of Marketing and Communications

For centuries, the West—anchored by Europe and the United States—has shaped the world’s political, economic and cultural landscape. However, we are living in times where the global balance of power is undergoing a seismic shift. The rapid rise of China, coupled with its significant financial influence globally, is redefining that global order. And as the world witnesses a transition from Western dominance to the rise of Eastern impact, China increasingly desires to play a pivotal role in determining the future trajectory of international relations and global governance, particularly when it comes to the Middle East and the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.

The Times They Are A-Changin’

In the past, Beijing’s foreign policy was centered around economic growth, trade partnerships and securing resources to fuel its rapid development. Yet China has increasingly engaged in multilateral organizations and proposed new diplomatic frameworks, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS, which carry significant geopolitical implications.

BRICS is an economic cooperation bloc originally made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In January, the bloc expanded to include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Ethiopia. The group was established to unite the world’s leading developing economies in a bid to counterbalance the political and economic dominance of the wealthier nations in North America and Western Europe.

As the BRICS economic power grows, so does their ambition to influence global governance and resolve regional conflicts—driven by founding members China and Russia. Concerningly, Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan in October 2024. Palestinian ambassador to Moscow Abdel Hafiz Nofal then announced via Russian state news agency TASS that “Palestine” will lodge its application to join BRICS after attending the summit.

As China and Russia continue to expand their influence through the BRICS bloc, Israel must contend with a shifting geopolitical landscape where its traditional allies may no longer hold the same sway, resulting in further isolation on the international stage.

As Thick as Thieves

Beijing’s expanding influence in the Middle East adds significant complexity to Israel’s security challenges. China’s relationship with Iran extends beyond mere diplomacy and securing a seat at the BRICS table; it has become a lifeline for the Iranian regime, particularly as Tehran faces crippling global sanctions.

Global sanctions, primarily led by the United States and its allies, have aimed to cripple Iran’s economy in response to its nuclear ambitions and support for terrorism. However, China has consistently undermined these sanctions, providing Iran with the economic support it needs to sustain its regime. In a recent Gatestone Institute article, author and political commentator Gordon G. Chang explains that China’s purchase of Iranian crude oil accounted for about 90% of the Islamic Republic’s exports last year, which makes it a crucial source of revenue that has kept the Iranian economy afloat.

Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a public endorsement of Iran’s sovereignty and security, signaling Beijing’s tacit support for the Iranian-backed terrorist group.

According to Chang, China has been encouraging Iran to assert its influence through its proxies, including Hamas. Moreover, China’s provision of weapons and military technology to Iran further fuels the fire in the Middle East. These arms, often channeled through Iran to its proxies, have been used against Israeli targets.

As long as China continues to provide economic and military support to Iran, Tehran’s ability to challenge Israel through both direct and proxy means will persist. The implications for Israel of Chinese support for Iran are dire and deeply troubling.

Peace, Peace but there is No Peace

To add insult to injury, on July 23, Beijing facilitated the signing of the Beijing Declaration, a unity agreement between 14 Palestinian factions, including the long-standing rivals Hamas and Fatah.

The split between Fatah and Hamas occurred in 2007 due to ideological differences and a power struggle following the last Palestinian elections in 2006. Fatah, a secular nationalist party, and Hamas, an Islamist militant group, clashed over governance, leading to Hamas taking control of Gaza and Fatah maintaining authority in the so-called West Bank as the PA.

China’s success to mediate between Israel’s enemies has raised alarm bells. A reconciled Palestinian front, especially one that includes Hamas—a recognized terrorist organization committed to Israel’s destruction—poses an immense threat to the Jewish state’s security.

With a birds-eye view of the changing global geopolitical landscape, Beijing’s involvement in Palestinian politics cannot be viewed as merely a diplomatic initiative. China’s ambitions of challenging Western dominance in the Middle East could destabilize Israel’s position in an already volatile region. By positioning itself as a mediator, China seeks to build soft power and secure its interests, including access to vital energy resources. Yet in the long term, these moves threaten to destabilize the region further by empowering factions hostile to Israel with weapons and finances. Unfortunately, it appears that Beijing’s motives go beyond a simple desire for peace. China’s role in reconciling Hamas and the PA, coupled with its sustained support for Iran despite global sanctions, presents a significant and growing threat to Jerusalem.

Israel faces the daunting challenge of navigating a geopolitical environment where its enemies are growing stronger and more coordinated, all while China’s economic influence through the BRICS bloc and its strategic alliances with countries like Iran threaten to shift the regional power dynamics. China’s future vision of a more balanced global order is one in which the Jewish state may regrettably find herself increasingly marginalized.

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