Gaza Standoff: Netanyahu and Hamas’s High-stakes Ceasefire Gamble

March 4, 2025

by: Ron Ben-Yishai ~ Ynetnews

Tuesday, 4 March 2025 | After Hamas rejected Israel’s demand to extend the first phase of the hostage deal while negotiating the second phase in parallel, a new proposal has emerged: the “two major phases” plan put forward by US envoy Steve Witkoff.

The proposal calls for a 50-day extension of the temporary ceasefire, allowing continued delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza until the end of Ramadan [one of the Five Pillars of Islam when stringent disciplines are observed] and Passover. In exchange, Hamas would release all hostages, both living and deceased, in two stages—one group at the beginning of the ceasefire and the second at the end. During this period, negotiations would take place over a permanent ceasefire or long-term truce.

The plan meets Israel’s demands, ensuring a phased release without prolonging the suffering of hostages and their families while avoiding a formal commitment to a permanent ceasefire under US guarantees. Politically, it benefits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by delaying a confrontation with far-right coalition partners Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, allowing him to push through the state budget. Without budget approval this month, the government would automatically dissolve, triggering early elections.

The High-stakes Negotiation Strategy

The American envoy is expected to arrive by the end of the week to push for a final agreement. Israel, having officially endorsed the plan, is supporting his efforts with a negotiation strategy that combines tough posturing with tactical flexibility. The approach leverages both threats and incentives for Hamas.

The main threat is the credible risk of an Israeli military operation to reoccupy Gaza. Five IDF divisions are already positioned around the Strip, ready for rapid deployment. Adding to the pressure, Israel has yet to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor, despite commitments to begin doing so after the first phase of the deal, which officially ended March 1.

At the same time, Israel is offering incentives, by allowing humanitarian aid and mobile homes into Gaza and facilitating infrastructure repairs to ease civilian suffering. Growing frustration among Gazans over Hamas’s failure to address the crisis was becoming increasingly apparent.

Three Pressure Points on Hamas

The Israeli strategy relies on three key pressure points. First, the military threat looms large, with Hamas fearing an incursion that could permanently dismantle its remaining power centers and force its leadership underground indefinitely or into surrender. Second, internal pressure within Gaza is mounting as civilians demand relief. In an effort to intensify this leverage, Israel announced on Sunday that it was halting humanitarian aid to Gaza as long as Hamas continues to reject the Witkoff plan. The decision was made in coordination with the Trump administration at the start of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan—Saturday marked the first day of the Muslim fast—adding another layer of urgency.

The third and strongest pressure point is US support. President Donald Trump has shown no signs of losing interest in resolving the crisis. On the contrary, his involvement appears to be deepening, with Israeli–American businesswoman Miriam Adelson, one of Trump’s biggest financial supporters, playing a significant role. Trump personally watched a TV interview with former hostage Eli Sharabi and has invited him to the White House this week.

Hamas’ Dilemma: Escalation or a Deal?

Hamas, for now, is playing tough, banking on the assumption that Israel would avoid resuming large-scale military operations for fear of endangering the hostages. But recent statements from Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz suggest that if Hamas refuses the deal, Israel may be willing to take that risk. The outcry from hostage families over the weekend underscored the grim reality Hamas now faces—however horrifying, the possibility that Israel might act despite the risks—is real, and Hamas was aware of it.

Another threat hanging over Hamas was the upcoming Arab summit in Cairo, where a post-war plan for Gaza—excluding Hamas—was set to be unveiled. This prospect worries Hamas even more than renewed fighting, as it could strip the group of its grip on power. Control over Gaza has been Hamas’ biggest achievement since its founding in the 1980s.

Losing both its official rule and its influence would not only weaken its position in Gaza but also undermine its claim to leadership of the Palestinian national movement and its ambitions to take over the West Bank [Judea and Samaria] and the Palestinian Liberation Organization. Hamas seeks to model itself after Hezbollah in Lebanon—an armed force wielding power behind the scenes—but the Arab proposal threatens to deny it that role. Its biggest fear is the return of the Palestinian Authority and a regional effort to disarm its forces.

To soften the Arab proposal and avoid a renewed Israeli offensive, Hamas may ultimately agree to a modified version of the Witkoff plan. Even then, it was expected to demand a significantly higher price, pushing for the release of more convicted terrorists in exchange for each hostage.

But Hamas’s acceptance was far from guaranteed. One senior official in the terror group has already declared that the group would not surrender to pressure. If Hamas remains defiant, Israel may have no choice but to launch a large-scale military operation, further endangering the hostages.

At this stage, the outcome remains uncertain. Mediators are working to bring Hamas on board, while Israel has already given its approval. Hostage families continue to suffer, the Israeli public remains on edge, and Hamas is intensifying its psychological warfare, one of the few tools it has left to influence decision-makers in Jerusalem. By the end of the week—or perhaps even later—the picture may finally become clearer.

Posted on March 4, 2025

Source: (This article was originally published by Ynetnews on March 2, 2025. Time-related language has been modified to reflect our republication today. See original article at this link.)

Photo Credit: Israel Defense Forces Spokespersons Unit/wikimedia.org

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