What to Expect from a Hezbollah Attack

August 9, 2024

by: Yoav Zitun ~ Ynetnews

Friday, 9 August 2024 | Israel’s defense establishment aligns with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s perspective, acknowledging that a significant portion of Hezbollah’s objectives has already been realized: the anticipation of revenge remains a top media focus in Israel without a single rocket being fired, following the assassination of Hezbollah’s top military commander Fu’ad Shukr in Beirut’s Dahieh district.

The heightened readiness of the Israeli Air Force [IAF], Home Front Command and Northern Command has entered its second week since the dual assassination, which saw the death of Shukr followed by the killing of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in an operation attributed to Israel.

Preparations were completed by the weekend, with the remaining time until Lebanon and Iran respond being used to strengthen coordination with regional allies, primarily the US, with expectations that Israel will again receive air cover and strategic depth to counter the anticipated attack.

The worst-case scenario for the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] is a coordinated, swift assault from both Iran and Lebanon, but defense and political leaders now assess the likelihood as low. Recent assessments suggest that Hezbollah will strike first, while Iran deliberates its response to Haniyeh’s assassination.

Foreign media reported that the operation in Tehran was conducted internally, in collaboration with local elements, using an explosive device, rather than a small, precise aerial strike from outside Iran. This detail is crucial; if confirmed by the ongoing Iranian investigation, it reduces the chances of a severe retaliation by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in the form of hundreds of missiles and drones targeting Israel.

According to Politico, US officials conveyed through intermediaries that if the explosion that killed Haniyeh resulted from a covert Israeli operation involving a remotely detonated device and did not harm any Iranian civilians, Tehran should reassess its plans for an attack on Israel.

Tehran is reportedly beginning to share this view, amid warnings that a broad attack on Israel could lead to direct confrontation or even war. However, sources who spoke with Politico said they still anticipate some form of Iranian response, though not immediately.

The psychological campaign

The situation with Hezbollah is different as Israeli officials assess that the response is already prepared and decided upon by the terrorist group’s leadership. Jerusalem anticipates that Hezbollah’s reaction will be powerful but focused on military targets in the north, possibly concentrating on the Haifa area, which houses several IDF bases and strategic facilities.

Additionally, alongside such an attack—which could inevitably spill over into nearby residential neighborhoods—there might be an attempt to widen the conflict by symbolically targeting areas south of Haifa, potentially in the Sharon region.

Hezbollah’s psychological achievement lies in maintaining security tension as a top issue in Israel, even though it has no current impact on the general public. The only disruption felt by tens of thousands of Israelis is the cancellation of hundreds of flights at Ben Gurion Airport during peak tourist season, but the absence of home front restrictions keeps most Israelis’ daily routines unchanged.

The waiting days of early April, between the assassination of the Revolutionary Guards’ General Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus and Iran’s subsequent retaliation with approximately 500 projectiles, have hardened the public, with no rush for supplies or cancellation of major events.

The attack could last from hours to days, depending on the destructive and deadly outcomes regarding Israeli casualties. In war games conducted by security leaders, scenarios were considered where a Hezbollah attack causing significant Israeli fatalities would trigger an immediate Israeli aerial response in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s strategic assets and potentially, with government approval, civilian sites used by Hezbollah.

Security officials believe the IDF will give residents reasonable warning, from minutes to hours, to prepare and stay near or in protected areas. The military anticipates that public compliance, as observed so far, will save lives and prevent further escalation.

However, a large-scale Hezbollah attack, expected to be its most extensive since the 2006 Lebanon War, could expose weaknesses in home front readiness, particularly concerning the lack of adequate shelters.

At the start of the year, Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth revealed a new emergency plan in the Haifa metropolitan area which includes the conversion of large, covered parking lots, some underground, for use by thousands of Israelis without adequate protection. The plan, tested and tweaked in recent months, may be implemented if a Hezbollah attack necessitates it.

However, Hezbollah is expected to aim for precision, targeting military sites in the north, and may employ precision weaponry such as swarms of explosive drones that challenge Air Force detection, or precision-guided missiles from its arsenal which the terrorist group did not have in the Lebanon war of summer 2006.

Distance advantage

The IDF is cautiously optimistic about a potential attack from Iran, thanks in part to the 2,000-kilometer [1,243-mile] distance between the two nations. This distance provides ample warning time, allowing for alarms and intercept measures to be activated, with 10–15 minutes for large ballistic missiles and up to eight hours for drones.

Additional US naval ships in the region have proven effective in detection efforts, but recent history shows vulnerabilities remain. In April, five Iranian missiles breached the defense systems of foreign air forces and the Israeli Air Force [IAF], striking two bases in the north and south, causing property and infrastructure damage without casualties. It’s likely Iran has adapted its strategy and may incorporate additional attack routes through Yemen’s Houthis or pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria.

Potential for regional stabilization

Israel is exploring the possibility of leveraging current tensions to negotiate a comprehensive multi-front resolution to the last 10 months of hostilities, which have not yet escalated into a regional war. This could involve a hostage deal with Hamas to secure the release of several captives. Such an agreement might pressure Hezbollah to hold back, potentially leading to a cease-fire in the north and US-brokered talks to distance the terror group from Israel’s border. This would also allow for reconstruction in the north and south and the replenishment of IDF resources following extensive operations in Gaza.

Senior security officials advocate for this approach, which could stabilize the Middle East rather than drag Israel into a multi-front war—particularly with Lebanon—under less favorable conditions for the IDF. Without such a deal, the ongoing fight in Gaza could leave hostages trapped in dire conditions in Hamas tunnels for months or even years.

The Qatari newspaper the New Arab reports that Western officials are working to persuade regional actors to accept a new comprehensive settlement proposal. The plan aims to prevent retaliatory strikes from Iran and Hezbollah for the assassinations of Shukr and Haniyeh and to halt the war in Gaza.

In recent days, this proposal has been circulated among Western and Arab parties. It includes a cease-fire, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, stable calm, a prisoner exchange, expanded humanitarian aid to Gaza and a comprehensive reconstruction plan for the region.

Posted on August 9, 2024

Source: (This article was originally published by the Ynetnews on August 8, 2024. Time-related language has been modified to reflect our republication today. See original article at this link.)

Photo Credit: IDF Spokesperson's Unit photographer/Wikimedia.org

Photo License: Wikimedia